Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? Odds fell to 30% on Aug 3, 2026

OpenMove

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 47¢ to 30¢ (-17 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Walter Bloomberg.

How did the odds move?

At match47¢
+5m35¢
+30m32.5¢
+1h30¢
+24h34.5¢
1h move-17 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoWalter Bloomberg97%match
STOCKS OF CRUDE OIL IN THE US STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE FELL BY ABOUT 2.85 MLN BARRELS TO 304.8 MLN BARRELS LAST WEEK, LOWEST SINCE 1983

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 40% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES40¢
NO60¢

Vol$43K

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Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.