Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Odds jumped to 23% on Sep 21, 2026

OpenMove

Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 6¢ to 22.6¢ (+16.6 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from News.

How did the odds move?

At match6¢
+5m8.4¢
+30m22.6¢
+1h22.6¢
1h move+16.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoNews97%match
UNITED RUSSIA WILL PRELIMINARY HAVE 355 SEATS IN THE STATE DUMA, THE CPRF - 40, THE LDPR - 25, NEW PEOPLE - 20, AND A JUST RUSSIA WILL HAVE 4 FOR NOW - HEAD OF THE CEC OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 87% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES87¢
NO13¢

Vol$295K

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Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.