Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Odds jumped to 23% on Sep 21, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 6¢ to 22.6¢ (+16.6 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from News. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match6¢
+5m8.4¢
+30m22.6¢
+1h22.6¢
+24h95.9¢
1h move+16.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 21, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 59.9¢ → 92.7¢+32.8 ptsafter a signal from spa.gov.sa

What moved the odds?

NoNews97%match
UNITED RUSSIA WILL PRELIMINARY HAVE 355 SEATS IN THE STATE DUMA, THE CPRF - 40, THE LDPR - 25, NEW PEOPLE - 20, AND A JUST RUSSIA WILL HAVE 4 FOR NOW - HEAD OF THE CEC OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$427K

Follow this market

Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.