Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Odds jumped to 25% on Sep 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 12.5¢ to 24.5¢ (+12 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from franceinfo.fr. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match12.5¢
+5m17¢
+30m25¢
+1h24.5¢
1h move+12 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 21.5¢ → 31¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from kommersant.ru

What moved the odds?

Nofranceinfo.fr95%match
Live: #RUSSIA According to this poll conducted by the Russian State Research Center of Public Opinion (VCIOM), United Russia won 49.4% of the vote (approximately the same score as in 2021), after three days of voting...

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$335K

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Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.