Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Odds jumped to 25% on Sep 20, 2026

OpenMove

Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 12.5¢ to 24.5¢ (+12 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from franceinfo.fr.

How did the odds move?

At match12.5¢
+5m17¢
+30m25¢
+1h24.5¢
1h move+12 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Nofranceinfo.fr95%match
Live: #RUSSIA According to this poll conducted by the Russian State Research Center of Public Opinion (VCIOM), United Russia won 49.4% of the vote (approximately the same score as in 2021), after three days of voting...

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 21% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES21¢
NO80¢

Vol$178K

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Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.