Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Odds fell to 75% on Sep 21, 2026
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Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? On , the market’s odds fell from 91.4¢ to 74.7¢ (-16.6 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from News.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Sep 21, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 91.4¢ → 77.4¢-14 ptsafter a signal from News
- 91.4¢ → 77.4¢-14 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
- 91.9¢ → 77.4¢-14.5 ptsafter a signal from Russian state TV
- 91.7¢ → 77.4¢-14.3 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media - MOD
- 91.1¢ → 77.4¢-13.7 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
- 91.2¢ → 77.4¢-13.8 ptsafter a signal from News
- 90.5¢ → 77.3¢-13.1 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
- 89.5¢ → 75¢-14.5 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
- 82.1¢ → 73.9¢-8.1 ptsafter a signal from News
- 77.4¢ → 68.9¢-8.5 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
- 68.5¢ → 10.5¢-58 ptsafter a signal from money.udn.com
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 28% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.