Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Odds fell to 3% on Sep 20, 2026

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Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? On , the market’s odds fell from 11.3¢ to 2.7¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from kommersant.ru.

How did the odds move?

At match11.3¢
+5m11.3¢
+30m7.4¢
+1h2.7¢
1h move-8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralkommersant.ru94%match
Central Election Commission: United Russia gains 49.06% in State Duma elections

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 9% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES9¢
NO91¢

Vol$162K

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Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.