Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Odds fell to 3% on Sep 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? On , the market’s odds fell from 11.3¢ to 2.7¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from kommersant.ru. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match11.3¢
+5m11.3¢
+30m7.4¢
+1h2.7¢
+24h5.3¢
1h move-8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralkommersant.ru94%match
Central Election Commission: United Russia gains 49.06% in State Duma elections

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$402K

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Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.