Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 55.0 and 57.9 in August? Odds fell to 19% on Aug 14, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 55.0 and 57.9 in August? On , the market’s odds fell from 31¢ to 18.5¢ (-12.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Reuters. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match31¢
+5m20.5¢
+30m17.5¢
+1h18.5¢
+24h8.5¢
1h move-12.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 14, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 31¢ → 18.5¢-12.5 ptsafter a signal from dbnews
  • 31¢ → 18.5¢-12.5 ptsafter a signal from News
  • 31¢ → 18.5¢-12.5 ptsafter a signal from News

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NoReuters97%match
University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Sentiment Prelim Aug 51.0 (Consensus 54.5) vs Final July 55.2

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$4K

Follow this market

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 55.0 and 57.9 in August? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.