Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August? Odds fell to 24% on Aug 14, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August? On , the market’s odds fell from 37¢ to 24¢ (-13 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Reuters. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match37¢
+5m25¢
+30m25.5¢
+1h24¢
+24h26.5¢
1h move-13 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 14, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 37¢ → 24¢-13 ptsafter a signal from dbnews
  • 34¢ → 24¢-10 ptsafter a signal from News
  • 34¢ → 24¢-10 ptsafter a signal from News
  • 34.5¢ → 24¢-10.5 ptsafter a signal from livesquawk

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NoReuters97%match
University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Sentiment Prelim Aug 51.0 (Consensus 54.5) vs Final July 55.2

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$16K

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Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.