Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July? Odds fell to 4% on Jul 31, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July? On , the market’s odds fell from 40¢ to 3.6¢ (-36.4 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from News. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match40¢
+5m0.5¢
+30m3.5¢
+1h3.6¢
1h move-36.4 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 31, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 40¢ → 3.6¢-36.4 ptsafter a signal from livesquawk
  • 40¢ → 3.6¢-36.4 ptsafter a signal from Walter Bloomberg
  • 39.5¢ → 3.6¢-35.9 ptsafter a signal from ifre.com

What moved the odds?

NoNews98%match
*UMICH FINAL JULY CONSUMER SENTIMENT RISES TO 55.2; EST. 54

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$4K

Follow this market

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.