Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in July? Odds fell to 14% on Jul 17, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in July? On , the market’s odds fell from 27.6¢ to 14¢ (-13.6 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from News. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match27.6¢
+5m23.2¢
+30m15.9¢
+1h14¢
+24h7.5¢
1h move-13.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 17, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 26.7¢ → 13.6¢-13.1 ptsafter a signal from livesquawk

What moved the odds?

NoNews98%match
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July was a preliminary 54.4 (forecast 51.0).

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$8K

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Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in July? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.