Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in July? Odds jumped to 95% on Jul 31, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in July? On , the market’s odds jumped from 50¢ to 95¢ (+45 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 3-source news cluster, from Reuters. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match50¢
+5m76.5¢
+30m95¢
+1h95¢
1h move+45 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 31, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 50.5¢ → 95¢+44.5 ptsafter a signal from News
  • 50.5¢ → 95¢+44.5 ptsafter a signal from livesquawk
  • 50.5¢ → 95¢+44.5 ptsafter a signal from Walter Bloomberg
  • 65¢ → 95¢+30 ptsafter a signal from ifre.com

What moved the odds?

Part of a 3-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesReuters98%match
University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Sentiment Final July 55.2 (Consensus 54.0) vs Preliminary July 54.4 and Final June 49.5

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$3K

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Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in July? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.