Will two people dissent the July Fed decision? Odds fell to 0% on Jul 29, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will two people dissent the July Fed decision? On , the market’s odds fell from 12.1¢ to 0.1¢ (-12 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Nick Timiraos, WSJ. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match12.1¢
+5m0.3¢
+30m0.1¢
+1h0.1¢
1h move-12 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NoNick Timiraos, WSJ97%match
The FOMC held rates steady, and the vote was 9-3. • • Three bank presidents dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate increase. • • It was the first time since 2016 that there were three dissents in the same direction over a policy change.
Nolivesquawk97%match
The FOMC held rates steady, and the vote was 9-3. • • Three bank presidents dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate increase. • • It was the first time since 2016 that there were three dissents in the same direction over a policy change.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$8K

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Will two people dissent the July Fed decision? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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