Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? Odds jumped to 46% on Oct 4, 2026

OpenMove

Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? On , the market’s odds jumped from 35.5¢ to 46¢ (+10.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from apnews.com.

How did the odds move?

At match35.5¢
+5m35.5¢
+30m35.5¢
+1h46¢
1h move+10.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Oct 4, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 35.5¢ → 46¢+10.5 ptsafter a signal from rtl.fr

What moved the odds?

Neutralapnews.com94%match
Brazil presidential vote pits Trump ally against Lula, who is seeking 4th nonconsecutive term

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 36% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES36¢
NO65¢

Vol$31K

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Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.