Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

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Market pricing makes Candidate A the favorite at 50% across 33 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Candidate Y · Candidate Z · Other

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Augusto Cury decides to support Flavio Bolsonaro in the second round.
Thank you to Romeu Zema for your support! Brazil will win! @RomeuZema
Flávio Bolsonaroiranintlbrk98%match56¢-59%
US President Donald Trump hailed the success of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate in Brazil's presidential election, in the first round. Bolsonaro came out on top on Sunday with the most votes, contrary to poll predictions.
Flávio Bolsonarodbws.io94%match54¢-57%
Trump hails Bolsonaro performance in Brazil first-round vote
Flávio Bolsonaroafp.com95%match61¢-62%
Trump says Bolsonaro performance in Brazil election a 'big victory'
Live: #BRAZIL After Javier Milei and numerous radical right-wing leaders from the South American continent, it is now Donald Trump's turn to praise Flavio Bolsonaro's breakthrough in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election...
Lula da SilvaRussian Media96%match97¢+2%
"The electorate went to the polls out of a sense of duty, not hope." The first round of the presidential elections took place in Brazil: reactions from the world media O Estado de S. Paulo (Sao Paulo, Brazil): "Brazilians have made it clear they are growing tired of Lula da Silva's Workers' Party. It's already clear that the electorate's desires are shifting... Now, Flávio and Lula are expected to debate their ideas so voters can determine which of the two is more capable of implementing change. But the campaign leading up to the first round of elections offers little cause for optimism... Almost nothing has been heard about what either of them intends to do once they take power in January. Both relied more on voters' fear of a possible victory than on confidence in their own proposals. As if being less disliked than the loser is enough to be considered a good leader. As a result, voters went to the polls more out of a sense of duty than hope, choosing the one they considered the lesser evil... The runoff opens a new opportunity to fundamentally change the discussion about the country's direction. The candidates should use this opportunity to finally talk about the future. Brazil's problems are enormous, but so is its people's desire to solve them—if, of course, they are wisely led, as history shows." The Wall Street Journal (New York, USA): This result—along with significant conservative victories in the simultaneous congressional and state elections—underscored the strength of Brazil's right-wing sentiment, which none of the major polls had been able to capture... In recent years, Brazil's right-wing has gained ground, fueled by outrage over rampant street crime, the growing political influence of evangelical Christians, and dissatisfaction among businesses and the middle class with tax policy, government spending, and the left's management of the economy... The current election campaign has become one of the most bitter in the history of democracy in Brazil. Neither Lula da Silva nor Bolsonaro participated in televised debates, discussion of political platforms was relegated to the background, and the campaign itself devolved into personal attacks and accusations of treason, pedophilia, and blasphemy. Sueddeutsche Zeitung (Munich, Bavaria): "The right is winning, and the incumbent president is heading into the runoff battered. Still considering oneself indispensable after three terms isn't a good sign for the country's future. This is a choice one can't envy. Since Brazilians failed to secure a majority vote on a new president on Sunday, a runoff is coming. The choice is between an 80-year-old whose face has loomed large in local politics for nearly half a century. And a far-right candidate whose father planned a coup." The Straits Times (Singapore, Singapore): "Contrary to pollsters' predictions that Lula would lead, Flávio Bolsonaro won 47% of the vote, while the incumbent president received 45%... If Bolsonaro wins the October 25 elections, Latin America's largest country will join the region's decisive shift to the right, a course actively supported by the US president... Donald Trump has stated that he is closely following the elections, but has not officially endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy." Follow Kommersant on MAX | Telegram
Lula da SilvaRussian Media96%match97¢+2%
"The electorate went to the polls out of a sense of duty, not hope." The first round of the presidential elections took place in Brazil: reactions from the world media O Estado de S. Paulo (Sao Paulo, Brazil): "Brazilians have made it clear they are growing tired of Lula da Silva's Workers' Party. It's already clear that the electorate's desires are shifting... Now, Flávio and Lula are expected to debate their ideas so voters can determine which of the two is more capable of implementing change. But the campaign leading up to the first round of elections offers little cause for optimism... Almost nothing has been heard about what either of them intends to do once they take power in January. Both relied more on voters' fear of a possible victory than on confidence in their own proposals. As if being less disliked than the loser is enough to be considered a good leader. As a result, voters went to the polls more out of a sense of duty than hope, choosing the one they considered the lesser evil... The runoff opens a new opportunity to fundamentally change the discussion about the country's direction. The candidates should use this opportunity to finally talk about the future. Brazil's problems are enormous, but so is its people's desire to solve them—if, of course, they are wisely led, as history shows." The Wall Street Journal (New York, USA): This result—along with significant conservative victories in the simultaneous congressional and state elections—underscored the strength of Brazil's right-wing sentiment, which none of the major polls had been able to capture... In recent years, Brazil's right-wing has gained ground, fueled by outrage over rampant street crime, the growing political influence of evangelical Christians, and dissatisfaction among businesses and the middle class with tax policy, government spending, and the left's management of the economy... The current election campaign has become one of the most bitter in the history of democracy in Brazil. Neither Lula da Silva nor Bolsonaro participated in televised debates, discussion of political platforms was relegated to the background, and the campaign itself devolved into personal attacks and accusations of treason, pedophilia, and blasphemy. Sueddeutsche Zeitung (Munich, Bavaria): "The right is winning, and the incumbent president is heading into the runoff battered. Still considering oneself indispensable after three terms isn't a good sign for the country's future. This is a choice one can't envy. Since Brazilians failed to secure a majority vote on a new president on Sunday, a runoff is coming. The choice is between an 80-year-old whose face has loomed large in local politics for nearly half a century. And a far-right candidate whose father planned a coup." The Straits Times (Singapore, Singapore): "Contrary to pollsters' predictions that Lula would lead, Flávio Bolsonaro won 47% of the vote, while the incumbent president received 45%... If Bolsonaro wins the October 25 elections, Latin America's largest country will join the region's decisive shift to the right, a course actively supported by the US president... Donald Trump has stated that he is closely following the elections, but has not officially endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy." Follow Kommersant on MAX | Telegram
I congratulate @FlavioBolsonaro on his achievement in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election and wish him success in the decisive final stage. •
Lula da Silvavesti.ru96%match99¢
Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva advance to the second round of elections in Brazil.
Lula da Silvarbc.ru97%match99¢
Lula da Silva lost to Bolsonaro's son in the first round of Brazil's elections.
Good news from Brazil: Bolsonaro's son has a good chance of becoming the next president
Renan Santosflaviobolsonaro95%match2¢-50%
I hope that candidate Renan Santos will reinstate his candidacy. President @jairbolsonaro has had his social media accounts blocked for over a year, and censorship can no longer be trivialized in Brazil!
Lula da Silvaalmayadeennews96%match96¢+3%
Brazilian-American clash before the elections... Lula da Silva defies Trump's pressure and makes sovereignty a red line Report: Ali Hijazi #Brazil #UnitedStates @AHIJAZY7

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections. An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections. An endorsement of an individual for any party’s nomination to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections will not qualify. The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Flavio and Lula”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support. An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred. If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech). Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement. Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.