Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026? Odds jumped to 90% on Aug 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 61.5¢ to 90¢ (+28.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nikkei.com. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match61.5¢
+5m61.5¢
+30m61.5¢
+1h90¢
+24h69¢
1h move+28.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Yesnikkei.com94%match
North Korea launches ballistic missile, possibly in response to US-South Korea military exercises; this is its second launch in August.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$76K

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Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.