Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Odds jumped to 55% on Sep 16, 2026
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Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 33.5¢ to 55.4¢ (+21.9 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 4-source news cluster, from Reuters.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
Part of a 4-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 35% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.