Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision? Odds jumped to 100% on Jul 8, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision? On , the market’s odds jumped from 58¢ to 100¢ (+42 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match58¢
+5m100¢
+30m100¢
+1h100¢
1h move+42 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

YesReuters99%match
The Monetary Policy Committee Today Reached Consensus to Increase the OCR by 25 Basis Points to 2.50 Percent.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$27K

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Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.