Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Odds fell to 27% on Jul 10, 2026

OpenMove

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 38.5¢ to 26.5¢ (-12 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 5-source news cluster, from iranintlbrk.

How did the odds move?

At match38.5¢
+5m43¢
+30m34.5¢
+1h26.5¢
+24h28.5¢
1h move-12 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 10, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 43¢ → 26.5¢-16.5 ptsafter a signal from sharghdaily
  • 43.5¢ → 26.5¢-17 ptsafter a signal from Jordanian Media
  • 43.5¢ → 26.5¢-17 ptsafter a signal from Iran Semi-Official ILNA
  • 43.5¢ → 26.5¢-17 ptsafter a signal from Sky News Arabia
  • 40.5¢ → 26.5¢-14 ptsafter a signal from content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com
  • 40.5¢ → 26.5¢-14 ptsafter a signal from Al Arabiya
  • 38¢ → 26.5¢-11.5 ptsafter a signal from Lebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed
  • 38¢ → 27¢-11 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
  • 38¢ → 27¢-11 ptsafter a signal from iranintl
  • 38.5¢ → 27¢-11.5 ptsafter a signal from alhadath
  • 38.5¢ → 27¢-11.5 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
  • 38.5¢ → 27¢-11.5 ptsafter a signal from entekhab_news

What moved the odds?

Part of a 5-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Yesiranintlbrk99%match
Axios, citing an informed source, wrote: A new round of talks between Washington and Tehran will likely take place next week, perhaps in Switzerland.
YesAl Jazeera99%match
Axios, citing a source: A new round of US-Iranian negotiations is expected to take place next week, possibly hosted by Switzerland.
Yessharghdaily99%match
Axios claims, citing an informed source: A new round of Iran-US talks is expected to be held next week, possibly hosted by Switzerland.
YesJordanian Media99%match
Axios, citing a source: A new round of US-Iranian negotiations is expected to take place next week, possibly hosted by Switzerland. #Breaking #Here_is_the_Kingdom
YesSky News Arabia99%match
Axios, citing informed sources: A new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran is expected next week and may be held in Switzerland.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES7¢
NO94¢

Vol$530K

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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.