Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Odds jumped to 72% on Sep 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 62.5¢ to 71.5¢ (+9 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 3-source news cluster, from News. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match62.5¢
+5m76¢
+30m77.5¢
+1h71.5¢
+24h99¢
1h move+9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 65¢ → 73¢+8 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
  • 78.5¢ → 91.5¢+13 ptsafter a signal from News
  • 71.5¢ → 83.5¢+12 ptsafter a signal from News
  • 73¢ → 84.5¢+11.5 ptsafter a signal from News
  • 75.5¢ → 91¢+15.5 ptsafter a signal from News
  • 74.5¢ → 89.5¢+15 ptsafter a signal from News

What moved the odds?

Part of a 3-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesNews97%match
In the State Duma elections, United Russia gained 49.4%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 14.2%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia - 10.7%, New People - 9.7%, and A Just Russia - 6.6% - according to the exit poll by VCIOM.
YesNews98%match
URGENTLY: The Communist Party of the Russian Federation receives 14.2% of the vote in the State Duma elections, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) - 10.7%, the National Assembly - 9.7%, and the Just Russia Party (SR) - 6.6% - exit poll by VTsIOM

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$88K

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Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.