Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 71% on Jul 13, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 62¢ to 71¢ (+9 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 3-source news cluster, from iran__7vwd. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match62¢
+5m60.5¢
+30m61¢
+1h71¢
+24h51¢
1h move+9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 3-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Yesiran__7vwd98%match
¶ Urgent Ansar Allah Political Bureau member Ali Al-Qahoum: The response to targeting Sana'a Airport will be strong and devastating. Our response will not be delayed, and the equation of breaking the siege will continue no matter what, and the enemies will bear full responsibility.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$81K

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Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Houthis successfully target shipping — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.