Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Odds jumped to 27% on Sep 16, 2026

OpenMove

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? On , the market’s odds jumped from 17.5¢ to 27¢ (+9.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from faststocknewss.

How did the odds move?

At match17.5¢
+5m17.5¢
+30m21.5¢
+1h27¢
1h move+9.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 16, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 31¢ → 42.5¢+11.5 ptsafter a signal from money.udn.com
  • 34.5¢ → 42.5¢+8 ptsafter a signal from faststocknewss

What moved the odds?

Yesfaststocknewss97%match
POLYMARKET ODDS OF A 25BP FED HIKE TODAY ARE AT 86% • • No change sits at 14%. The FOMC decision comes this afternoon. • • The contract traded near 52% on September 4 and crossed 79% last Thursday.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 34% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES34¢
NO67¢

Vol$2K

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Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.