Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? Odds fell to 0% on Sep 4, 2026

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Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? On , the market’s odds fell from 16.5¢ to 0.1¢ (-16.4 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters.

How did the odds move?

At match16.5¢
+5m0.1¢
+30m0.1¢
+1h0.1¢
1h move-16.4 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoReuters94%match
U.S. August Unemployment Rate 4.1% (Consensus 4.1%)

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$11K

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Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for August Unemployment Rate — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.