Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September? Odds fell to 19% on Sep 24, 2026

OpenMove

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September? On , the market’s odds fell from 31¢ to 18.5¢ (-12.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from cls.cn.

How did the odds move?

At match31¢
+5m31.5¢
+30m17.5¢
+1h18.5¢
1h move-12.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralcls.cn94%match
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose 2 basis points to 5.14%, the highest level since 2007.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 19% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES19¢
NO81¢

Vol$2K

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Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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