How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Resolved13as of
This hub tracks 13 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
New York bond market conditions: 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to over 5.2%.
POLYMARKET ODDS THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS 5.15% IN SEPTEMBER ARE AT 86% • • Traders put the odds of it reaching 5.17% at 67%. September has six trading days left. • • Warsh cited economic strength, competition for capital from the capex surge, and geopolitics as the three reasons bond yields have risen, at last week's press conference after the Fed raised rates to 3.75-4.00%.
POLYMARKET ODDS THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS 5.15% IN SEPTEMBER ARE AT 86% • • Traders put the odds of it reaching 5.17% at 67%. September has six trading days left. • • Warsh cited economic strength, competition for capital from the capex surge, and geopolitics as the three reasons bond yields have risen, at last week's press conference after the Fed raised rates to 3.75-4.00%.
New York bond market conditions: 10-year Treasury yield briefly rises to over 5.1%.
NY bond market rebounds; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.95% as US crude oil prices pause.
NY bond market rebounds; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.95% as US crude oil prices pause.
NY bond market sees decline in long-term bonds; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.99% due to ripple effects of higher interest rates in Europe.
NY bond market sees decline in long-term bonds; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.99% due to ripple effects of higher interest rates in Europe.
NY bond market sees continued decline in long-term bonds; 10-year Treasury yield at 5.00% amid rising oil prices and expectations of a US interest rate hike.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds breaks through 5% amid high global funding costs...the new normal.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has surpassed 5 percent, reaching its highest level since 2007, amid concerns about rising inflation and anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. The increase was driven by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, and fears of disruptions to oil supplies through the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
The 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 5%, sending a "warning signal" to the Federal Reserve.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, but this is not the final test.
The sell-off in global bond markets intensified on Tuesday. After the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time in nearly three years on Monday, it continued to climb to its highest level since 2007 on Tuesday. Investors also accelerated their sell-off of other global bonds, pushing the yields on 10-year German and Japanese government bonds to multi-year highs.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5%: Why Buybacks Can’t Offset Inflation and AI Capex Demand. • The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed above 5%, putting the bond market back at the centre of the global economic outlook as
US 10-year Treasury yields exceed 5%, a peak not seen since 2007
U.S. 10-YEAR YIELD HITS HIGHEST SINCE 2007 • • The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%, reaching its highest level in nearly two decades as oil prices, inflation fears and heavy debt issuance pressure bonds. • • Markets expect the Fed to hike rates Wednesday. • • Market angle: a sustained move above 5% could pull capital from stocks, while some strategists warn 6% could come into focus.
The last time the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 5%, the US economy was struggling to digest the aftermath of the pandemic. This time, the culprit is a war with no end in sight. Currently, traders are wondering: will 5% become the ceiling for 10-year yields like it did in 2023, or will it be completely breached, leading to a lending environment more like that of the 2000s?
10-year Treasury yield touches 5% for the first time in 2 years and 11 months ahead of U.S. FOMC in September
Economic / US Treasury yield on 10-year bonds exceeds 5% for the first time since October 2023
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose above 5% as the market focused on the Fed's moves.
The Iran War Is Helping Send Energy Prices and Interest Rates Up. America's Debt Problem Just Got More Expensive.. • The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note topped 5% on Monday, about a full percentage point higher than at the end of February and close to levels not seen since 2007.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds briefly exceeded 5% for the first time in about three years.
[Investment Note] World's Best 'Safe Asset' U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield at 5%
New York bond market conditions: 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to over 5%.
10-year Treasury yield touches 5% as all eyes on Fed
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).