Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September? Odds jumped to 92% on Sep 23, 2026

OpenMove

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September? On , the market’s odds jumped from 66.5¢ to 91.5¢ (+25 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters.

How did the odds move?

At match66.5¢
+5m67.5¢
+30m90¢
+1h91.5¢
1h move+25 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NeutralReuters95%match
U.S. Treasury Yield on 10-Year Note Hits 5.0458%, Highest Since 2007; Last Up 6.84 Basis Points at 5.035%

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 53% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES53¢
NO47¢

Vol$14K

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Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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