Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September? Odds jumped to 77% on Sep 15, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September? On , the market’s odds jumped from 61.5¢ to 76.5¢ (+15 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from yna.co.kr. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match61.5¢
+5m62.5¢
+30m78¢
+1h76.5¢
+24h80¢
1h move+15 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 15, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 61.5¢ → 76.5¢+15 ptsafter a signal from ft.com

What moved the odds?

Neutralyna.co.kr94%match
As U.S. 10-Year Treasury Surpasses 5%... Government Bond Yields Hit Yearly High (Roundup)

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$18K

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Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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