Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September? Odds fell to 89% on Sep 15, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September? On , the market’s odds fell from 98.8¢ to 88.6¢ (-10.2 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from m.thepaper.cn. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match98.8¢
+5m98.8¢
+30m98.8¢
+1h88.6¢
1h move-10.2 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Yesm.thepaper.cn94%match
The 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 5%, sending a "warning signal" to the Federal Reserve.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$8K

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Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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