Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September? Odds fell to 89% on Sep 15, 2026

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Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September? On , the market’s odds fell from 98.8¢ to 88.6¢ (-10.2 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from m.thepaper.cn.

How did the odds move?

At match98.8¢
+5m98.8¢
+30m98.8¢
+1h88.6¢
1h move-10.2 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Yesm.thepaper.cn94%match
The 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 5%, sending a "warning signal" to the Federal Reserve.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 99% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES99¢
NO1¢

Vol$5K

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Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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