Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September? Odds jumped to 92% on Sep 14, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: Yes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September? On , the market’s odds jumped from 81¢ to 92¢ (+11 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from money.udn.com. The market has since resolved Yes.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Sep 14, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 92.5¢ → 78.5¢-14 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
- 92.5¢ → 78.5¢-14 ptsafter a signal from ft.com
- 92.5¢ → 78.5¢-14 ptsafter a signal from Walter Bloomberg
- 92.5¢ → 78.5¢-14 ptsafter a signal from News
- 92.5¢ → 78.5¢-14 ptsafter a signal from News
- 92.5¢ → 78.5¢-14 ptsafter a signal from yna.co.kr
- 92.5¢ → 77.5¢-15 ptsafter a signal from sedaily.com
- 92.5¢ → 77.5¢-15 ptsafter a signal from joongang.co.kr
- 93.5¢ → 77.5¢-16 ptsafter a signal from chosun.com
- 93¢ → 74.5¢-18.5 ptsafter a signal from cnbc
- 93¢ → 74.5¢-18.5 ptsafter a signal from Asharq
- 93¢ → 74.5¢-18.5 ptsafter a signal from zerohedge
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
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Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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