Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September? Odds jumped to 90% on Sep 11, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September? On , the market’s odds jumped from 80.5¢ to 90¢ (+9.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match80.5¢
+5m81.5¢
+30m83.5¢
+1h90¢
+24h77¢
1h move+9.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NeutralReuters94%match
Yield on 10-Year Treasury Note Hits Highest Level Since October 23, 2023

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$8K

Follow this market

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.