Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.94% in September? Odds jumped to 92% on Sep 10, 2026

OpenMove

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.94% in September? On , the market’s odds jumped from 80.5¢ to 92¢ (+11.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters.

How did the odds move?

At match80.5¢
+5m80.5¢
+30m89¢
+1h92¢
1h move+11.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NeutralReuters94%match
Yield on 10-Year Treasury Note Hits Highest Level Since October 2023

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 80% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES80¢
NO20¢

Vol$3K

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Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.94% in September? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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