Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.94% in September? Odds jumped to 92% on Sep 10, 2026

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.94% in September? On Sep 10, 2026, 18:08 UTC, the market’s odds jumped from 80.5¢ to 92¢ (+11.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 10, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

• Sep 10, 2026, 18:09 UTC80.5¢ → 92¢+11.5 ptsafter a signal from cls.cn

What moved the odds?

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of Oct 15, 2026, 07:07 UTC.

Vol$4K

Follow this market

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.94% in September? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.