Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes? Odds fell to 3% on Sep 13, 2026

OpenMove

Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes? On , the market’s odds fell from 13¢ to 3¢ (-10 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Reuters.

How did the odds move?

At match13¢
+5m11.5¢
+30m5.5¢
+1h3¢
1h move-10 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NoReuters97%match
Sweden’s Social Democrats Projected to Win 28.4% of Votes in Election vs 30.3% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll
NoReuters97%match
Rpt-Sweden’s Social Democrats Projected to Win 28.4% of Votes in Election vs 30.3% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 13% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES13¢
NO87¢

Vol$24K

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Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.