Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?

ResolvedOutcomes4as of

This hub tracks 4 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

27-30%100%
<27%0%
30-33%0%
33%+0%

What moved the odds?

8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

33%+iranintlbrk98%match100¢
According to the initial vote count for the Swedish parliamentary elections, the Social Democrats will remain the strongest party in parliament, despite a decline in votes compared to the 2022 elections, but they will likely need a three-party coalition to form a government.
<27%Reuters97%match85¢+18%
Rpt-Sweden’s Social Democrats Projected to Win 28.4% of Votes in Election vs 30.3% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll
30-33%Reuters97%match87¢+15%
Rpt-Sweden’s Social Democrats Projected to Win 28.4% of Votes in Election vs 30.3% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll
33%+Reuters97%match96¢+4%
Rpt-Sweden’s Social Democrats Projected to Win 28.4% of Votes in Election vs 30.3% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll
27-30%Reuters97%match62¢+61%
Sweden’s Social Democrats Projected to Win 28.4% of Votes in Election vs 30.3% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll
<27%Reuters97%match71¢+41%
Sweden’s Social Democrats Projected to Win 28.4% of Votes in Election vs 30.3% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll
30-33%Reuters97%match87¢+15%
Sweden’s Social Democrats Projected to Win 28.4% of Votes in Election vs 30.3% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll
33%+Reuters97%match95¢+5%
Sweden’s Social Democrats Projected to Win 28.4% of Votes in Election vs 30.3% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll

What is this event about?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).