Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes? Odds jumped to 90% on Sep 13, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes? On , the market’s odds jumped from 62¢ to 89.5¢ (+27.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Reuters. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match62¢
+5m71¢
+30m88¢
+1h89.5¢
+24h99.5¢
1h move+27.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 13, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 74.5¢ → 86¢+11.5 ptsafter a signal from Reuters

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesReuters97%match
Sweden’s Social Democrats Projected to Win 28.4% of Votes in Election vs 30.3% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll
NeutralReuters97%match
Rpt-Sweden’s Social Democrats Projected to Win 28.4% of Votes in Election vs 30.3% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$36K

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Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.