Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Odds jumped to 94% on Sep 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? On , the market’s odds jumped from 79.5¢ to 94¢ (+14.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from spiegel.de. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match79.5¢
+5m80¢
+30m81¢
+1h94¢
1h move+14.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 80¢ → 94¢+14 ptsafter a signal from dpa.com

What moved the odds?

Yesspiegel.de95%match
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD wins according to wiretap calculations, SPD close behind (copy)

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$59K

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Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.