Will Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 200B HKD? Odds fell to 13% on Sep 1, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: Yes
Will Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 200B HKD? On , the market’s odds fell from 31¢ to 12.5¢ (-18.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Reuters. The market has since resolved Yes.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Sep 1, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 26¢ → 12.5¢-13.5 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
- 11¢ → 24¢+13 ptsafter a signal from nikkei.com
- 20¢ → 37.5¢+17.5 ptsafter a signal from nikkei
- 20¢ → 38.5¢+18.5 ptsafter a signal from Asharq
- 39.5¢ → 24¢-15.5 ptsafter a signal from chinesewsj
- 40.5¢ → 55.5¢+15 ptsafter a signal from businessinsider.com
- 21¢ → 99.5¢+78.5 ptsafter a signal from nikkei
What moved the odds?
Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
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Will Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 200B HKD? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.