Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Odds fell to 4% on Aug 11, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: NoMove
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? On , the market’s odds fell from 18.4¢ to 4.3¢ (-14 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 8-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ). The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
At match18.4¢
+5m19.4¢
+30m16.7¢
+1h4.3¢
+24h0.2¢
1h move-14 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 11, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
14¢ → 2.6¢-11.4 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
19.1¢ → 2.2¢-16.9 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
21.3¢ → 2.2¢-19 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
19.3¢ → 2.1¢-17.2 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
16.3¢ → 1.5¢-14.8 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
16.5¢ → 1.1¢-15.4 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
10.8¢ → 0.9¢-9.9 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
12.1¢ → 0.8¢-11.3 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
12.2¢ → 0.8¢-11.4 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
15.8¢ → 0.8¢-15 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
14.3¢ → 0.8¢-13.5 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
13.8¢ → 0.8¢-13 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
What moved the odds?
Part of a 8-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
NeutralDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 1% in): South Carolina US Senate Republican Special Election Primary • • Darline Graham (R): 1,042 (30.1%) • Mark Sanford (R): 901 (26.0%) • Russell Fry (R): 899 (26.0%) • Ralph Norman (R): 442 (12.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
▲YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 4% in): South Carolina US Senate Republican Special Election Primary • • Russell Fry (R): 4,490 (35.7%) • Darline Graham (R): 3,788 (30.1%) • Mark Sanford (R): 2,004 (15.9%) • Ralph Norman (R): 1,699 (13.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
NeutralDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 5% in): South Carolina US Senate Republican Special Election Primary • • Russell Fry (R): 5,146 (29.9%) • Darline Graham (R): 4,950 (28.8%) • Ralph Norman (R): 3,562 (20.7%) • Mark Sanford (R): 2,535 (14.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
▲YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 6% in): South Carolina US Senate Republican Special Election Primary • • Russell Fry (R): 5,834 (30.7%) • Darline Graham (R): 5,519 (29.0%) • Ralph Norman (R): 3,812 (20.1%) • Mark Sanford (R): 2,744 (14.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
NeutralDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 8% in): South Carolina US Senate Republican Special Election Primary • • Darline Graham (R): 8,028 (29.7%) • Russell Fry (R): 7,409 (27.4%) • Ralph Norman (R): 6,137 (22.7%) • Mark Sanford (R): 3,848 (14.2%) • • Follow more results here: •
NeutralDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 12% in): South Carolina US Senate Republican Special Election Primary • • Darline Graham (R): 11,855 (29.5%) • Ralph Norman (R): 9,869 (24.5%) • Russell Fry (R): 9,715 (24.1%) • Mark Sanford (R): 6,077 (15.1%) • Mark Lynch (R): 1,994 (5.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
NeutralDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 15% in): South Carolina US Senate Republican Special Election Primary • • Darline Graham (R): 14,493 (30.4%) • Russell Fry (R): 11,507 (24.1%) • Ralph Norman (R): 11,226 (23.5%) • Mark Sanford (R): 7,404 (15.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
NeutralDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 17% in): South Carolina US Senate Republican Special Election Primary • • Darline Graham (R): 16,501 (30.2%) • Russell Fry (R): 13,283 (24.3%) • Ralph Norman (R): 12,935 (23.7%) • Mark Sanford (R): 8,216 (15.1%) • • Follow more results here: •
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .