Will Richard Neal be the MA-01 Democratic nominee? Odds jumped to 98% on Sep 2, 2026

OpenMove

Will Richard Neal be the MA-01 Democratic nominee? On , the market’s odds jumped from 88.6¢ to 98.1¢ (+9.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 4-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ).

How did the odds move?

At match88.6¢
+5m88.7¢
+30m73.4¢
+1h98.1¢
1h move+9.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 2, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 89.5¢ → 98¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 80.1¢ → 98.1¢+18 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 62.4¢ → 98.1¢+35.7 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 73.3¢ → 98.1¢+24.8 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)

What moved the odds?

Part of a 4-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 5% in): Massachusetts US House 1 Democratic Primary • • Richard Neal (D): 2,809 (55.7%) • Jeromie Whalen (D): 2,236 (44.3%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 0% in): Massachusetts US House 1 Democratic Primary • • Richard Neal (D): 205 (51.9%) • Jeromie Whalen (D): 190 (48.1%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 1% in): Massachusetts US House 1 Democratic Primary • • Richard Neal (D): 454 (52.8%) • Jeromie Whalen (D): 406 (47.2%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 5% in): Massachusetts US House 1 Democratic Primary • • Richard Neal (D): 2,904 (54.4%) • Jeromie Whalen (D): 2,438 (45.6%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 98% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES98¢
NO2¢

Vol$77K

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Will Richard Neal be the MA-01 Democratic nominee? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for MA-01 Democratic Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.