Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Odds fell to 49% on Jul 12, 2026

OpenMove

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 63.7¢ to 49.4¢ (-14.3 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from semafor.com.

How did the odds move?

At match63.7¢
+5m63.7¢
+30m62.5¢
+1h49.4¢
+24h57.5¢
1h move-14.3 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Nosemafor.com98%match
Paramount weighs leaving California over Warner Bros. rift

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 18% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES18¢
NO82¢

Vol$152K

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Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.