Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? Odds fell to 5% on Aug 7, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 32.9¢ to 5.3¢ (-27.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 5-source news cluster, from axios.com. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 32.9¢ → 5.2¢-27.6 ptsafter a signal from axios
- 27.9¢ → 5.2¢-22.7 ptsafter a signal from zoomerfied
- 27.9¢ → 5.2¢-22.7 ptsafter a signal from News
What moved the odds?
Part of a 5-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
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Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for OpenAI’s Astra released — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.