Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Odds fell to 21% on Jul 8, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? On , the market’s odds fell from 38.5¢ to 20.5¢ (-18 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from inews.co.uk. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match38.5¢
+5m20.5¢
+30m19¢
+1h20.5¢
+24h30.5¢
1h move-18 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 8, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 23¢ → 35.5¢+12.5 ptsafter a signal from thetimes.com

What moved the odds?

Yesinews.co.uk99%match
Live: British public thinks major parties are right to boycott Clacton by-election, says poll

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$601K

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Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote % — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.