Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Odds fell to 11% on Sep 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? On , the market’s odds fell from 23.5¢ to 11¢ (-12.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from News. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match23.5¢
+5m24¢
+30m23.5¢
+1h11¢
+24h1.3¢
1h move-12.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 22.5¢ → 9.5¢-13 ptsafter a signal from News

What moved the odds?

NoNews96%match
URGENT "New People" are in second place in the State Duma elections according to the results of the State Duma Election Group with 15.42%

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$85K

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Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.