Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? Odds jumped to 100% on Aug 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? On , the market’s odds jumped from 67.5¢ to 99.6¢ (+32.1 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match67.5¢
+5m67.5¢
+30m68.5¢
+1h99.6¢
1h move+32.1 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 74¢ → 99.6¢+25.6 ptsafter a signal from dbnews

What moved the odds?

Neutralnytimes.com95%match
Live: Did inflation pick up in July or slow down? It may depend on what period you look at. On a monthly basis, inflation almost certainly accelerated following an outright decline in consumer prices in June (driven mostly by lower energy prices). But forecasters expect inflation to cool somewhat on a 12-month basis.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$121K

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Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for July Inflation US - Monthly — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.