July Inflation US - Monthly≥0.1%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$121Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
US inflation rose 0.2% in July compared to the previous month, in line with expectations.
YESNews94%match100¢
*US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.1%
*US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.1% • *US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 3.4% Y/Y; EST. +3.4% • • *US JULY CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2% • *US JULY CORE CPI RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
YESNews95%match100¢
US CPI rose 0.1% in July compared to the previous month (Reuters forecast a 0.1% increase).
YESdbnews94%match74¢+35%
*US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.1%
Institutional preview: US July CPI and core CPI m/m forecasts • US July seasonally adjusted CPI m/m (prior -0.4%; consensus +0.1%): forecasts cluster at +0.1%. A minority expect 0.0% (Capital Economics, Citi, Mizuho). Several banks and houses project +0.2% (including Deutsche Bank, ING, BNP Paribas, Barclays, UBS); Jefferies is the highest at +0.3%. US July seasonally adjusted core CPI m/m (prior +0.0%; consensus +0.2%): the bulk of institutions forecast +0.2%. A few expect +0.1% (Mizuho, Sparta Capital); Deutsche Bank, Moody's Analytics and Scotiabank are at +0.3%. (
Where does the news lean?
7YES0NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
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