Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Odds fell to 15% on Aug 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 27.5¢ to 15¢ (-12.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from alarabiya. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match27.5¢
+5m19.5¢
+30m16.5¢
+1h15¢
+24h25¢
1h move-12.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralalarabiya94%match
Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani: The region is going through difficult times due to the US-Iranian conflict... and our efforts are focused on mediating between Washington and Tehran.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$115K

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Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.