Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate primary by 3–6%? Odds jumped to 51% on Aug 19, 2026

OpenMove

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate primary by 3–6%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 37¢ to 50.5¢ (+13.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from ppollingnumbers.

How did the odds move?

At match37¢
+5m36.5¢
+30m37.5¢
+1h50.5¢
+24h10¢
1h move+13.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 19, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 37.5¢ → 50.5¢+13 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com

What moved the odds?

Noppollingnumbers97%match
New - Alaska Senate primary (Top 4 advance) (70%) Field 47% S Sullivan (Inc) 44% J Sullivan 2.5% Heikes 1%

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$12K

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Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate primary by 3–6%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.