Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory?

OpenOutcomes12as of

Market pricing makes Peltola 6–9% the favorite at 97% across 12 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Peltola 6–9%97%
Other50%
Peltola 9–12%3%
Peltola 15%+0%
Peltola 12–15%0%
Peltola 3–6%0%
Peltola <3%0%
Sullivan <3%0%
Sullivan 3–6%0%
Sullivan 6–9%0%
Sullivan 9–12%0%
Sullivan 12%+0%

What moved the odds?

22 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Peltola 12–15%CNN Reporter97%match100¢
Alaska primary results as of this hour (> = projected by CNN to advance): • • #AKGOV (80% in) • Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 21.7% > • Begich (D) 20 > • Wilson (R) 10.5 • Bronson (R) 8.4 • • #AKSEN (80% in) • Peltola (D) 48 > • Sullivan (inc./R) 42.8 > • Sullivan (R) 2.4 • Leslie (D) 1.1 • • #AKAL (80% in) • Begich (inc./R) 46.1 > • Hill (I) 31 > • Schultz (D/suspended) 8.1 • Hafner (D) 3.8
Sullivan <3%CNN Reporter98%match94¢+6%
Alaska primary results as of this hour (> = projected by CNN to advance): • • #AKGOV (80% in) • Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 21.7% > • Begich (D) 20 > • Wilson (R) 10.5 • Bronson (R) 8.4 • • #AKSEN (80% in) • Peltola (D) 48 > • Sullivan (inc./R) 42.8 > • Sullivan (R) 2.4 • Leslie (D) 1.1 • • #AKAL (80% in) • Begich (inc./R) 46.1 > • Hill (I) 31 > • Schultz (D/suspended) 8.1 • Hafner (D) 3.8
Sullivan 3–6%CNN Reporter98%match98¢+2%
Alaska primary results as of this hour (> = projected by CNN to advance): • • #AKGOV (80% in) • Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 21.7% > • Begich (D) 20 > • Wilson (R) 10.5 • Bronson (R) 8.4 • • #AKSEN (80% in) • Peltola (D) 48 > • Sullivan (inc./R) 42.8 > • Sullivan (R) 2.4 • Leslie (D) 1.1 • • #AKAL (80% in) • Begich (inc./R) 46.1 > • Hill (I) 31 > • Schultz (D/suspended) 8.1 • Hafner (D) 3.8
Sullivan 6–9%CNN Reporter98%match100¢
Alaska primary results as of this hour (> = projected by CNN to advance): • • #AKGOV (80% in) • Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 21.7% > • Begich (D) 20 > • Wilson (R) 10.5 • Bronson (R) 8.4 • • #AKSEN (80% in) • Peltola (D) 48 > • Sullivan (inc./R) 42.8 > • Sullivan (R) 2.4 • Leslie (D) 1.1 • • #AKAL (80% in) • Begich (inc./R) 46.1 > • Hill (I) 31 > • Schultz (D/suspended) 8.1 • Hafner (D) 3.8
Sullivan 9–12%CNN Reporter98%match100¢
Alaska primary results as of this hour (> = projected by CNN to advance): • • #AKGOV (80% in) • Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 21.7% > • Begich (D) 20 > • Wilson (R) 10.5 • Bronson (R) 8.4 • • #AKSEN (80% in) • Peltola (D) 48 > • Sullivan (inc./R) 42.8 > • Sullivan (R) 2.4 • Leslie (D) 1.1 • • #AKAL (80% in) • Begich (inc./R) 46.1 > • Hill (I) 31 > • Schultz (D/suspended) 8.1 • Hafner (D) 3.8
Sullivan 12%+CNN Reporter98%match100¢
Alaska primary results as of this hour (> = projected by CNN to advance): • • #AKGOV (80% in) • Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 21.7% > • Begich (D) 20 > • Wilson (R) 10.5 • Bronson (R) 8.4 • • #AKSEN (80% in) • Peltola (D) 48 > • Sullivan (inc./R) 42.8 > • Sullivan (R) 2.4 • Leslie (D) 1.1 • • #AKAL (80% in) • Begich (inc./R) 46.1 > • Hill (I) 31 > • Schultz (D/suspended) 8.1 • Hafner (D) 3.8
Peltola 3–6%ppollingnumbers97%match63¢+59%
New - Alaska Senate primary (Top 4 advance) (70%) Field 47% S Sullivan (Inc) 44% J Sullivan 2.5% Heikes 1%
Sullivan <3%ppollingnumbers98%match94¢+6%
New - Alaska Senate primary (Top 4 advance) (70%) Field 47% S Sullivan (Inc) 44% J Sullivan 2.5% Heikes 1%
Sullivan 3–6%ppollingnumbers98%match97¢+3%
New - Alaska Senate primary (Top 4 advance) (70%) Field 47% S Sullivan (Inc) 44% J Sullivan 2.5% Heikes 1%
Sullivan 6–9%ppollingnumbers98%match100¢
New - Alaska Senate primary (Top 4 advance) (70%) Field 47% S Sullivan (Inc) 44% J Sullivan 2.5% Heikes 1%
Sullivan 9–12%ppollingnumbers98%match100¢
New - Alaska Senate primary (Top 4 advance) (70%) Field 47% S Sullivan (Inc) 44% J Sullivan 2.5% Heikes 1%
Sullivan 12%+ppollingnumbers98%match100¢
New - Alaska Senate primary (Top 4 advance) (70%) Field 47% S Sullivan (Inc) 44% J Sullivan 2.5% Heikes 1%
Peltola 9–12%livesquawk94%match95¢+2%
Decision Desk HQ projects Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. wins the Alaska US Senate Primary • • #DecisionMade: 2:02 AM EDT
Peltola 9–12%Decision Desk (DDHQ)94%match95¢+2%
Decision Desk HQ projects Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. wins the Alaska US Senate Primary • • #DecisionMade: 2:02 AM EDT
Sullivan <3%Decision Desk (DDHQ)98%match93¢+8%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Alaska US Senate Primary • • Mary Peltola (D): 53,817 (46.8%) • Dan Sullivan (R): 50,988 (44.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
Sullivan 3–6%Decision Desk (DDHQ)98%match94¢+6%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Alaska US Senate Primary • • Mary Peltola (D): 53,817 (46.8%) • Dan Sullivan (R): 50,988 (44.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
Sullivan 6–9%Decision Desk (DDHQ)98%match63¢+59%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Alaska US Senate Primary • • Mary Peltola (D): 53,817 (46.8%) • Dan Sullivan (R): 50,988 (44.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
Sullivan 9–12%Decision Desk (DDHQ)98%match84¢+19%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Alaska US Senate Primary • • Mary Peltola (D): 53,817 (46.8%) • Dan Sullivan (R): 50,988 (44.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
Sullivan 12%+Decision Desk (DDHQ)98%match63¢+59%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Alaska US Senate Primary • • Mary Peltola (D): 53,817 (46.8%) • Dan Sullivan (R): 50,988 (44.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
Sullivan 3–6%Decision Desk (DDHQ)98%match94¢+6%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 33% in): Alaska US Senate Primary • • Mary Peltola (D): 22,143 • (47.9%) • Dan Sullivan (R): 19,857 • (43.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
Sullivan 6–9%Decision Desk (DDHQ)98%match63¢+59%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 33% in): Alaska US Senate Primary • • Mary Peltola (D): 22,143 • (47.9%) • Dan Sullivan (R): 19,857 • (43.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
Sullivan 9–12%Decision Desk (DDHQ)98%match84¢+19%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 33% in): Alaska US Senate Primary • • Mary Peltola (D): 22,143 • (47.9%) • Dan Sullivan (R): 19,857 • (43.0%) • • Follow more results here: •

What is this event about?

The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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