Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%? Odds jumped to 49% on Sep 2, 2026
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Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 25¢ to 49¢ (+24 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nbcnews.com.
How did the odds move?
25¢
16¢
21.5¢
49¢
+24 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
Neutralnbcnews.com94%match
Live: Incumbent Edward Markey wins the Democratic Senate primary in Massachusetts, NBC News projects
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 28% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES28¢
NO72¢
$2K
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Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.