Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%? Odds jumped to 49% on Sep 2, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 25¢ to 49¢ (+24 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nbcnews.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match25¢
+5m16¢
+30m21.5¢
+1h49¢
1h move+24 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 2, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 16¢ → 78.5¢+62.5 ptsafter a signal from CNN Reporter
  • 16¢ → 78.5¢+62.5 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
  • 16¢ → 78.5¢+62.5 ptsafter a signal from ms.now
  • 27.5¢ → 78.5¢+51 ptsafter a signal from cbsnews.com

What moved the odds?

Neutralnbcnews.com94%match
Live: Incumbent Edward Markey wins the Democratic Senate primary in Massachusetts, NBC News projects

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$3K

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Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.