Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%? Odds jumped to 49% on Sep 2, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 23.5¢ to 48.5¢ (+25 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ). The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match23.5¢
+5m15¢
+30m15.5¢
+1h48.5¢
+24h54¢
1h move+25 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 2, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 15¢ → 46¢+31 ptsafter a signal from apnews.com
  • 15.5¢ → 46¢+30.5 ptsafter a signal from foxnews
  • 12.5¢ → 46¢+33.5 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NoDecision Desk (DDHQ)97%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 3% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 22,379 (71.9%) • Seth Moulton (D): 8,728 (28.1%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$5K

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Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.