Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%? Odds jumped to 30% on Sep 2, 2026

OpenMove

Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 8¢ to 29.5¢ (+21.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 4-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ).

How did the odds move?

At match8¢
+5m5.5¢
+30m9¢
+1h29.5¢
1h move+21.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 2, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 8¢ → 18¢+10 ptsafter a signal from nbcnews.com

What moved the odds?

Part of a 4-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NeutralDecision Desk (DDHQ)97%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 0% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 1,036 (70.2%) • Seth Moulton (D): 439 (29.8%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 28% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES28¢
NO72¢

Vol$2K

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Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.