Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 40% or more? Odds fell to 10% on Sep 2, 2026

OpenMove

Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 40% or more? On , the market’s odds fell from 48.3¢ to 10.1¢ (-38.1 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 4-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ).

How did the odds move?

At match48.3¢
+5m41.8¢
+30m30.7¢
+1h10.1¢
1h move-38.1 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 2, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 38.1¢ → 11.2¢-26.8 ptsafter a signal from nbcnews.com
  • 37.7¢ → 11.2¢-26.5 ptsafter a signal from NBC Reporter
  • 37.3¢ → 11.1¢-26.2 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
  • 36.9¢ → 11.1¢-25.8 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
  • 36.9¢ → 11.1¢-25.8 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
  • 36.9¢ → 11.1¢-25.8 ptsafter a signal from Sen. Ed Markey has fended off a challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton in the Massachusetts Democratic primary for Senate, Decision Desk HQ projects. Moulton, a 47-year-old who’s served in the House for six terms, had lodged a generational change campaign against Markey, an 80-year-old who served 20 terms in the House and is seeking a…
  • 47.7¢ → 11.1¢-36.5 ptsafter a signal from cnn.com
  • 47.7¢ → 11.1¢-36.5 ptsafter a signal from CNN Reporter
  • 47.7¢ → 11.1¢-36.5 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
  • 47.7¢ → 11.1¢-36.5 ptsafter a signal from ms.now
  • 47.2¢ → 11.1¢-36 ptsafter a signal from cbsnews.com
  • 47.2¢ → 11.1¢-36 ptsafter a signal from apnews.com

What moved the odds?

Part of a 4-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NeutralDecision Desk (DDHQ)97%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 2% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 12,161 (78.3%) • Seth Moulton (D): 3,377 (21.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
NeutralDecision Desk (DDHQ)97%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 0% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 286 (71.3%) • Seth Moulton (D): 115 (28.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
NeutralDecision Desk (DDHQ)97%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 0% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 1,036 (70.2%) • Seth Moulton (D): 439 (29.8%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 18% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES18¢
NO82¢

Vol$1K

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Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 40% or more? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.