Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01? Odds jumped to 99% on Aug 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01? On , the market’s odds jumped from 85¢ to 98.5¢ (+13.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 3-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ). The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match85¢
+5m89¢
+30m98.5¢
+1h98.5¢
1h move+13.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 87.5¢ → 98.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com

What moved the odds?

Part of a 3-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 0% in): Connecticut US House 1 Democratic Primary • • Luke Bronin (D): 80 (59.7%) • John Larson (D): 25(18.7%) • Jillian Gilchrest (D): 19 (14.2%) • Ruth Fortune (D): 10 (7.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 2% in): Connecticut US House 1 Democratic Primary • • Luke Bronin (D): 828 (55.8%) • John Larson (D): 385 (25.9%) • Jillian Gilchrest (D): 199 (13.4%) • Ruth Fortune (D): 72 (4.8%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$31K

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Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.